interstices

A new data point can be added to the long-term information on party identification in Idaho.  The local paper reports the information with a headline that the “GOP Gains Support in Idaho” which while true it makes a bigger deal out of a change from two years ago than may be the case.  Party identification shows changes from year to year and this year’s 47 percent total for the GOP equals a high number from 2005.  But it’s no bigger than what the numbers have shown in the past.

There’s more.  Mason-Dixon’s report on the poll (pdf) indicates the respondents were selected who said they will vote in November.  The past surveys by Boise State are of all adults, not just ones who are going to vote.  Why does this matter?  This year pollsters nationally have pointed out meaningful differences in  the motivation of voters, and Republican voters are more likely to be motivated to vote and Democratic voters less so.  The generic Congressional ballot shows measureable differences between surveys of registered voters versus survey reports that go through a likely voter screen.  So Mason-Dixon’s screening question on intention or likelihood to vote probably pushed the numbers slightly higher for the GOP.  All this, of course is a distinction with little difference with Republican hegemony in Idaho as it is.  The real story is still that of 15-20 years ago when Democratic Party identification fell from more than 30 percent to about 20 percent and political independents did the reverse.